Unlike others, we leverage two technologies to supplement polling aggregation: Google Search Trends corpora and an advanced AI technique, L2 or Ridge regularization regression, which enhances predictive accuracy while reducing overfitting, bringing maximal precision-driven insights to each forecast.
We’re tracking essential metrics during the Trump presidency at Daily Kos, which is our new home.
You can find us there: https://www.dailykos.com/users/PluralVote
Alternatively, you can type in “Plural Vote” into Google News, and our latest articles and insights should pop up.
“when you look at forecasted margins: the prominent modelers had mediocre performances. (Notably, one modeler, Plural Vote, stands out in the crowd […]).”
PREDICTING POLITICS, 2020 (link)
“Only the forecasts from Plural Vote and PredictIt had an expected distribution close to centered on the observed outcome.”
DR. JAKE THOMPSON, 2021, STATISTICIAN AND ASSITANT DIRECTOR OF PSYCHOMETRICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS (link)
“Biden Nearly 5 Times More Likely than Trump to Win Election, Forecast Models Average Shows […] forecast models included in the average were created by Decision Desk HQ, JHK Forecasts, Plural Vote and Reed Forecasts”
“Democratic candidate Joe Biden is touted as the most likely victor in this year’s presidential election according to forecasts and polls putting him and President Donald Trump head-to-head. […] Plural Vote’s forecast gives a more conservative figure in terms of projecting a Biden win, with it suggesting he has a 65.05 percent chance of victory.”
“@plural_vote, @RealClearNews, @FiveThirtyEight, and @jhkersting were the forecasters with the best accuracy.
The error statistics reported by AtlasIntel reveal that Plural Vote’s prediction error in swing states was 20.2% lower than RCP, 25.9% lower than FiveThirtyEight, 26.3% lower than JHK Forecast, 35.8% lower than The Economist, 37.8% lower than Decision Desk HQ, and 51.7% lower than LeanTossup.
“New Grinnell/Selzer poll shows Biden up by 8 points.
Here’s how that translates into electoral votes. #ElectionTwitter pic.twitter.com/YzYKUeIaTZ
— Plural Vote (@plural_vote)”
4 days before the 2020 election, American consultant and pollster Frank Luntz tweeted: “@Plural_Vote: 67.6% Biden”
FRANK LUNTZ, 2020, CONTRIBUTOR TO MSNBC, WASHINGTON POST, NEW YORK TIMES, CNBC (link)
21 days before the November 3rd, 2020 election, American consultant and pollster Frank Luntz tweeted: “@Plural_Vote: 73.96% Biden”
FRANK LUNTZ, 2020, CONTRIBUTOR TO MSNBC, WASHINGTON POST, NEW YORK TIMES, CNBC (link)
The morning of election day, Plural Vote’s prediction for Biden’s number of electoral votes – only 3 shy of the outcome – was reported by a Washington Post journalist:
“309 Biden (65.05% chance of victory), 229 Trump”
J.J. MCCULLOUGH, 2020, WASHINGTON POST JOURNALIST (link)
1 month and 24 days before the 2020 election, MSNBC contributor Bill Scher tweeted:
“Battleground state poll average, Biden margin, from RCP, 538, Economist, JHK and Plural Vote… RCP NH +9.7 WI +6.4 AZ +5.7 MN +5 PA +4.3 NV +4 MI +3.2 OH +2.4 NC +1.5 FL +1.2 GA -1.3 IA -1.7 TX -3.5”
BILL SCHER, 2020, MAJORITY REPORT, WASHINGTON MONTHLY, NEWS YORK TIMES, THE WEEK, POLITICO, MSNBC, REALCLEARPOLITICS CONTRIBUTOR (link)
1 month and 24 days before the 2020 election, MSNBC contributor Bill Scher tweeted:
“Besides @FiveThirtyEight @TheEconomist @jhkersting @SamWangPhD and @plural_vote , who else is doing presidential election models this year?”
BILL SCHER, 2020, MAJORITY REPORT, WASHINGTON MONTHLY, NEWS YORK TIMES, THE WEEK, POLITICO, MSNBC, REALCLEARPOLITICS CONTRIBUTOR (link)
1 month and 24 days before the 2020 election, MSNBC contributor Bill Scher tweeted:
“Plural Vote NH +9.7 MI +8.1 MN +6.4 WI +6.1 PA +5.6 NV +5.4 AZ +4.3 FL +3 NC +1.4 TX -1.1 IA -1.7 OH -3.7 GA -4.5 http://pluralvote.com/article/2020-forecast/“
BILL SCHER, 2020, MAJORITY REPORT, WASHINGTON MONTHLY, NEWS YORK TIMES, THE WEEK, POLITICO, MSNBC, REALCLEARPOLITICS CONTRIBUTOR (link)
For Plural Vote, polling, especially in the age of single-digit cell phone response rates, is not sufficient.
As a result, we integrate a system of Google Search Trends AI and Machine Learning algorithms that look not only at polling but the frequencies of polarizing searches across the nation.
Even in close races like 2020, our Mean Average Error in the closest swing states was lower than that of FiveThirtyEight and The Economist, thanks to our unique ingredient combination of polling with search trends.
You can see our state-by-state predictions in the last elections, and understand why we were a crucial reference point for news outlets ranging from The Week to Newsweek.
Plural Vote has raised the bar in election forecasting. Its 2020 election forecast was covered by journalists from seasoned publications The New York Times and The Washington Post. In addition, its in-depth coverage in Newsweek and The Week prove that Plural Vote is not only a beacon of accuracy but also sets new standards in understanding electoral dynamics.
Dedication and precision undergirds everything Plural Vote does as well as its process. Every forecast is a result of countless hours of diligent, focused and meticulous work. Each prediction is not just a result of number-crunching but crafted with the very same insight and expertise that has made Plural Vote a trusted name in election forecasting.
Join the conversation about Plural Vote, the most accurate electoral forecast that has garnered attention from top journalists from major publications like the New York Times and Newsweek. Discuss and use your voice as its insights can be used to help inform your decisions this election season.
Plural Vote 📈🌈📊 @Plural_Vote
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